“AURING” has now intensified to a Severe Tropical Storm as it moves closer to Mindanao based on the latest Severe Weather Bulletin from PAGASA. Several areas in Davao and Caraga Regions are now placed under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1. Meanwhile, PAGASA forecasts moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon and other areas tomorrow, February 20.

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Full details below.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #6
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “#AuringPH” (DUJUAN)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 19 February 2021 (Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today)

“AURING” INTENSIFIES INTO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF MINDANAO

Hazards affecting land areas:

Heavy Rainfall:

  • Today through tomorrow afternoon, light to moderate with at times heavy rainshowers over Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte.
  • Tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning, heavy to intense rains over Caraga Region. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Eastern Visayas, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, and Davao de Oro. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the rest of Visayas, the rest of Northern Mindanao, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, Masbate, Lanao del Sur, Cotabato, and Davao City.
  • Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.

Strong Winds:

  • The surge of the Northeast Monsoon is already bringing strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over Northern Luzon and the eastern sections of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, especially in coastal and mountainous areas. The affected localities include those currently under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1. However, strong breeze to near-gale conditions directly associated with “AURING” will likely begin to prevail over the wind signal areas on Saturday at the earliest.
  • More localities in Caraga and Davao Region may be placed under TCWS #1 in the next bulletin. Based on current meteorological data, the highest level of wind signal that will be issued throughout the passage of “AURING” is TCWS #2 (for potentially damaging gale-force to storm-force winds).

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

  • In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (3.0 to 7.0 m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Rough to very rough seas are also expected over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas (3.0 to 6.0 m). Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
  • Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the rest of the seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Track and intensity outlook:

  • Severe Tropical Storm “AURING” will move generally westward or west-southwestward slowly over the next 24 hours before turning northwestward tomorrow morning while accelerating. It is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga Region on Sunday (21 February) morning. On the forecast track, the storm will likely follow a generally northwestward path as it traverses Caraga Region, Visayas, and MIMAROPA on Sunday and Monday.
  • Further intensification into a typhoon within the forecast period remains less likely as of this time. “AURING” will likely weaken while crossing the archipelago due to significant terrain interaction and dry air intrusion from the Northeast Monsoon.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “AURING” was estimated based on all available data at 535 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (7.0°N, 131.0°E). Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Movement: Moving Southwestward SlowlyForecast Positions •

  • 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 405 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (6.9°N, 129.8°E)
  • 48 Hour (Sunday morning): 100 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte (9.6°N, 126.4°E)
  • 72 Hour (Monday morning): In the vicinity of Nabas, Aklan (11.9°N, 122°E)
  • 96 Hour (Tuesday morning): 300 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.4°N, 118.4°E)
  • 120 Hour (Wednesday morning): 365 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.6°N, 116.9°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)Mindanao Davao Oriental, the eastern portion of Davao de Oro (Pantukan, Maragusan, New Bataan, Compostela, Monkayo), the eastern section of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat, Bayugan City, Prosperidad, Talacogon, San Francisco, Rosario, Bunawan, Santa Josefa, Trento), and Surigao del Sur

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

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