Cagayan de Oro City and Misamis Oriental and Northern Mindanao as a whole are now threatened by the first weather disturbance expected to hit the region for 2017. The Low Pressure Area east of Mindanao which has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named “Auring” by PAG-ASA is slowly moving west northwest as shown in PAG-ASA’s forecast track above.

Below is the satellite image showing the large clouds which have covered most of Mindanao.

Based on PAG-ASA’s Severe Weather Bulletin #1 for TD Auring released at 11:00am today, January 7, 2017 (see below), Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. 1 is now up over most of the CARAGA provinces. “Auring” is moving slowly at 7 kilometers per hour. The forecast track has Auring over the city by Monday morning.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #1
FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #AuringPH
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 07 January 2017

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OF EAST OF MINDANAO HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND WAS NAMED AURING.

•Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
•Residents of areas with TCWS #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
•Expected to make landfall over Surigao Provinces between Sunday evening until Monday early morning.
•Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression “AURING” was estimated based on all available data at 260 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur(7.8°N, 128.6°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of up to 45 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 55 kph.

Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 7 kph.

Forecast Positions:
•24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 120 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur(8.5°N, 127.4°E)
•48 Hour(Monday morning):In the vicinity of San Miguel, Surigao del Sur(9.0°N, 125.9°E)
•72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 95 km West Northwest of Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental(9.5°N, 122.5°E)
•96 Hour(Wednesday morning):In the vicinity of Puerto Princesa, Palawan(10.0°N, 118.7°E)
•120 Hour(Thursday morning):25 km West of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(11.0°N, 113.9°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

TCWS #1(30-60 kph Expected in 36 hours)
Mindanao: Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Island Province.

Impacts of the wind:
•Very light or no damage to low risk structures, 
•Light damage to medium to high risk structures
•Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
•Twigs of small trees may be broken.
•Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

Everyone is advised to be vigilant and take precautionary measures for the coming weather disturbance.

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